Recently in Futures, Options and Commodities Category

January Crude Oil futures succumbed to selling pressure last week, reaching a high at $103.37 and forming a closing price reversal top. Once confirmed, this pattern often leads to a minimum 50% correction of the most recent rally. Although a sell-off is likely, it doesn't mean the trend has changed to down. What this pattern may be doing is giving long traders a reason to take profits before a correction takes place. Aggressive counter-trend traders may be interested in the short-side.

Based on the main range from the May top at $115.22 to the October bottom at $75.36, crude oil exceeded a major retracement zone at $95.29 to $99.99. Selling pressure, however, was strong enough to push the market back inside of this zone, re-establishing its importance as a potential resistance zone. In addition, downtrending Gann angle resistance and uptrending Gann angle support formed a cluster of prices with the retracement zone to identify a possible topping area.

This week the retracement zone stays intact, but one Gann angle drops down to $100.72 and the other moves up to $103.36. Since the contract closed under both of these angles, it begins the week in a weak position. In addition, taking out $96.70 will confirm the weekly top and a trade through $95.29 will put the market on the bearish side of the retracement zone.

Going forward, the short-term range is $75.36 to $103.37. This range formed a retracement zone at $89.37 to $86.06. Uptrending Gann angle support from the recent bottom moves up to $89.36. This creates a support cluster and possible downside target at $89.37 to $89.36. If the closing price reversal is confirmed then traders should look for a possible break into this support cluster over the near-term.

After weeks of trading on bullish supply issues, crude oil finally fell victim to the weaker Euro and stronger Dollar and closed lower. At this time one could build a case that the weakness looks more like profit-taking after the market reached a 15-week top. I think it's safe to say that a combination of factors probably gave nervous long traders a reason to take a little off the top.

The problem developing with the Euro is not only a stronger Dollar. As you probably know when the Dollar goes up, commodities such as crude oil priced in dollars tends to get weaker. After the past year or two this correlation worked well except for times of tight supplies when crude oil took off higher on its own. The current rally in crude oil was one of those cases where the market rallied despite a weaker Euro and stronger Dollar.

This week's sell-off in conjunction with the stronger Dollar suggests that perhaps traders are once again ready to lean on the correlation between crude oil and the Dollar. Besides the short-term factors regarding sovereign debt problems in Italy and Spain, some crude oil traders may be pricing in the possibility of a recession in Europe and the subsequent spread of this economic weakness around the world.

Despite the recent slew of decent U.S. economic numbers recently, it isn't going to take much for the situation in Europe to escalate to the point where it begins to experience slow or negative growth. The Federal Reserve as well as the Bank of England is already bracing for slower growth, but even if this is already factored into crude oil prices, Europe and China could still trigger even more weakness if their economies weaken more than expected.

With crude oil falling on Friday despite an improvement in U.S. leading economic indicators in October, trader sentiment may be shifting back toward aversion to riskier assets especially since the turmoil in Europe is expected to continue. Technically, the weekly closing price reversal top suggests that crude oil may be ripe for a near-term correction of at least 50% of its six-week rally. It is suggested that you keep an eye on the Euro if you are going to speculate in crude oil futures this week.

Factors Affecting Crude Oil This Week:

Supply and Demand: Tight supplies led the crude oil market higher over the past several weeks, and it may be the reason why it tops out. On Wednesday, the U.S. EIA report showed that crude oil stockpiles declined by 1.1 million barrels for the week-ended November 11. Traders were looking for a decline of 1.5 million barrels. Although the market rallied initially, by the end of the week the market had given up all of its post-report gains. This could be a sign that perhaps demand may wane over the next few weeks. There are no new estimates for this Wednesday's report yet, but overshooting the stockpile figure may mean that analysts may have to curtail their demand outlook.

European Sovereign Debt: The European sovereign debt problems are not going to go away over the near-term and probably will still be around well into 2012 also. The question that traders are asking themselves is why is the Euro still holding above 1.30? With pressure continuing to mount on the single-currency, it seems almost inevitable that it is going to continue to weaken to a more reasonable value area. The charts indicate somewhere near 1.18 is likely. Not only is contagion a real possibility, but the possible demise of the Euro is also being tossed about by traders. All of this negativity seems to point toward a lower Euro, a stronger Dollar and weaker crude oil prices.

U.S. Economy: This week is a holiday shortened week meaning trading could be light and volatile because of low volume. Monday the existing home sales figure will be released. This is expected to be steady to lower and not really an influence on crude oil prices. Tuesday's preliminary GDP figure could be a market mover if it comes out either side of the 2.5% guess. Anything below will be bearish for crude oil. Durable goods is called lower and negative. This will not be a good sign for the economy. Personal Spending is called positive but lower. Personal Income is estimated to be positive and higher.

Iran Sanctions: The Obama administration is expected to announce plans to impose a new round of sanctions against Iran's petrochemical industry on Monday. European nations are expected to follow suit. If I know this then the major players in the crude oil markets know this too. I believe this has already been priced into a barrel of crude oil so don't expect much more than a knee-jerk reaction to the upside.

Source: http://oilprice.com/

DECEMBER GOLD FINISHES SESSION UP $4.90 AND SETTLES AT $1725.10 FOR THE WEEK

This week the December Gold Futures contract covered a vast $86.60 trading range. On Monday November 14th we traded as high as $1797.60 and on Thursday November 17th we traded as low as $1711.00 the volatility and choppy market conditions continue to be fueled by the increased fragility in the European Union. The economic news here in the United States coupled with the worsening debt crisis in the Euro region has fueled a STRONGER U.S DOLLAR and therefore pressuring the precious metals markets.

The recent SELL-OFF in the Crude Oil futures has also halted the rally momentum in the Gold market. Both Gold and Crude oil NORMALLY are ANTI Dollar, therefore when The Dollar is WEAK normally Gold and Crude oil are STRONG and VISA VERSA.

WEEKLY NOTEWORTHY NEWS:

THURSDAY:

Traders and investors alike are liquidating their precious metals in order to raise cash. This is almost exactly the opposite in the normal thinking in trading gold during times of economic crisis. The European continent is facing its worst economic crisis since World War 2. This should be reason enough for a flight to "safer havens". However, in my opinion European and global investors are liquidating Gold and Silver to raise cash and are choosing the U.S dollar as their currency of choice recently.

The U.S economic data recently has shown that the United States economy is growing stronger despite the continued slide in the European union. The weekly report on Initial Jobless Claims is 388k this was expected to be 395k.

WEDNESDAY:

According to Chris Kahn of the associated press: Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, is suspected of developing nuclear weapons, according to a United Nations report in early November. Its nuclear program could lead to international trade sanctions, and Israel has threatened military action.

Companies operating in Nigeria also say that oil production has been hurt by spills, sabotage and outright thefts. Nigeria is one of the top five oil exporters to the U.S. Supplies of oil, gasoline and diesel also have been falling in the U.S., increasing the price pressure on those commodities.

TUESDAY:

The wide ranges have been very technical as they have traded between technical support and resistance levels.... I believe these technical ranges indicate the true lack of confidence that investors have. Gold bugs are not pushing the boundaries since the avalanche sell-off on September 23rd. (9/23 trading range...High-$1757.90 Low-$1631.70).

The volatility has left many traders a bit gun shy. Crude Oil prices are once again approaching $100 per barrel. The higher Crude prices are normally `bullish" for Gold. The higher Crude oil prices helped to offset the higher U.S Dollar today.

MONDAY:

The stronger U.S Dollar pressured the Gold as investors viewed German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comment "Europe could be living through its toughest hour since World War 2"as as a reality check after initial optimism concerning the change in governments in both Greece and Italy.

The Dollar rose against the Euro after the sale of 5 year Italian Government Bonds came at the highest price in 14 years....Today's trading volume was extremely light as investors remain very tentative and are seeking economic and geo-political data in order to choose their trading strategies.... The whippy and volatile ranges have side-lined smaller and less aggressive traders.

I expect the precious metals to remain volatile as the world awaits to see the post Papandreou and Berlusconi regimes.

MY SWING NUMBERS 11/21
DECEMBER GOLD

RESISTANCE # 2.................................$1753.00
RESISTANCE # 1.................................$1739.00
PIVOT ................................................$1725.00
SUPPORT # 1.....................................$1712.00
SUPPORT # 2.....................................$1698.00
VOLUME ...........................................230,000

Mike Daly / Gold Specialist
Research Division

PFGBEST.com
mdaly@pfgbest.com

312.563.8029
877.294.4669

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. PFGBEST, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

When a portion of your portfolio is diversified into commodities on days like today there should be no need to panic. Crude traded to a nine month low today dragging prices very close the $80/barrel mark. It's been painful but we highly doubt a 20% reduction is justified. The pundits say it is demand destruction but the reality is investors are raising cash, covering margins and the baby is getting thrown out with the bath water. Crude, the distillates and natural gas are a buy in my opinion. It has been a tough trade but scale in as we expect a sharp correction very soon. I cannot stress enough this is my opinion, do your own homework and if you disagree that is fine...that is what makes a market. We feel oil could see $95 before it sees $75. Natural gas remains over sold but at these price points it may be one of the best buys in commodities...again my opinion.

Our suggestion is to gain bullish exposure in October contracts. Black swan, white sheep, pink flamingo call it what you want the Credit downgrade by S&P has the stock market on its heels . We should see a bounce at some point but I am hearing whispers of 2008 revisited so maybe a better trade is the sidelines as opposed to picking a bottom. Some aggressive clients have light exposure in September ES puts but need serious help. FYI a 50% Fibonacci retracement lifts September back to 1230/1235 so anything is possible. Gold gained 4% today trading ever closer to $1800/ounce. It makes me nervous when gold outpaces silver by a ratio of nearly 2:1. We have no exposure and still think a correction is due but I am besides myself missing this move for clients. To me though being on the sidelines in gold is far better than being in the stock market...it could be worse.

The commodity currencies were hit the hardest today with the Aussie lower by 2.6%, the Kiwi giving up 2.6% and the Loonie down by 1.4%. We would book profits in all shorts in the aforementioned crosses and have advised clients to start scaling into longs in the Loonie. The suggestion is to get long here at five month lows just looking for a bounce to 1.0300. Sugar traded below the 50 day MA today for the first time in three months. We may get a rally that we would look to sell for clients...trade accordingly. Most of our clients took their shorts off in recent sessions. OJ gave up another 5% today making it nearly 15% in the last five sessions. Clients with bearish positions were advised to book profits on their shorts. We've yet to make a move but lumber is on or radar as a potential buy with prices down 20% in the last month...stay tuned.

A new high in Treasuries as investors would rather get a minute yield than lose money...how long will this continue is anyone's guess. Avoid bearish plays until the circumstances change. This could happen on some sort of global intervention of verbiage from the FOMC tomorrow...stay tuned. Corn gave up 2.5%, soybeans 1.8% and wheat the biggest loser at 3.7%. All three may trade lower but being were holding around the 200 day MA we've advised aggressive clients to start scaling into November soybeans. Our suggestion was to purchase $1 bull call spreads. Lean hogs lost 1.7% today closing back under the 20 day MA. On a further break tomorrow we will be looking to offset clients shorts at a profit. We would likely look for an exit door in October closer to 88/88.50.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

* Trading in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

As of this post September Crude is lower by 1.4% but prices did hold above the 9 day MA. $94.50 in this contract will need to hold on a closing basis for me to maintain my bullishness. Natural gas has appreciated nearly 13% in the last two weeks and at this juncture we are advising the sidelines anticipating re-establishing longs from lower levels for clients. Equities broke down today trading to a three week low as bearish momentum is gaining. A close at current levels; in the S&P below 1305 and below 12300 in the Dow we would become a seller on rallies with aggressive clients. Continue to use the 50 day/100 day MA's as your pivot points.

Nothing to me screams buy or sell but those looking for a trade could fade rallies in the commodity currencies; Kiwi, Aussie and Loonie. Gold hit another record high today settling above $1600/ounce gainign8% in the last two weeks. We are bullish in the intermediate time frame but we expect a correction in the immediate future of $30-40...trade accordingly. Silver appreciated 3.5% today lifting prices to three month highs. Like gold we are bullish but are expecting a correction in the immediate future. A 20% appreciation in two weeks in our opinion seems a bit much. We would be looking to buy a break back under $38/ounce in the September contract.

The entire live stock complex was hit today with lean hogs lower by 1.23%, feeder cattle by nearly 1% and live cattle by 0.90%. Perhaps the biggest news was not the movement but the lack of as pork bellies were de-listed from the CME. The near 5% dip in live cattle has us interested in probing longs for aggressive clients very soon...stay tuned. Sugar remains a sale as we expect prices to head south trading back near 25 cents/lb. Cotton and coffee continue lower as they have been two of the hardest hit commodities in recent weeks. Since the beginning of June cotton has lost 30% of its value and coffee from the beginning of May has lost 20%. Wait for a further correction in grains before buying wheat, corn or soybeans remains our suggestion.

Buyers were absent from Treasuries today and with some of the big players calling for higher yields which would equate to lower pricing. On a trade through the 20 day MA's we may be interested in bearish exposure with clients in 30-yr bonds or 10-yr notes...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 920-9997
matt@mbwealth.com
www.mbwealth.com

Commodity traders do not pick a side as markets can be traded from both sides when you have wild swings like we're currently experiencing. Inside day in Crude with August ending 1.7% higher just below the 40 day MA. We suggest long exposure with a target of $102/barrel in the coming weeks. Natural gas gained nearly 4% today trading higher for the last six sessions. Our target was obtained today so we advised clients to exit the trade booking profits. On a setback we will likely re-position long in October contracts.

Stocks will finish down on the week but the fact the 50 and 100 day MA's held to close out the week we may get a rally from here. Who knows certainly not me so we have no trade recommendations until we get either a bullish or bearish set up. The Loonie advanced to a three month high today...we used this as a selling opportunity for aggressive clients. We've placed various strategies for clients in both future and options for a possible break back near 1.0250/1.0200 in the coming weeks.

Gold finished near its highs but failed to make a new high gaining just shy of $5 today and $55 on the week. While $1600 is doable on this leg we feel a $30-40 correction is coming real soon...trade accordingly. On its highs September silver futures is bumping up against the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement line. A trade above $39.50 next stop should be $41.50 however my opinion for what its worth is a trade back near $37/ounce first...trade accordingly.

Clients are flat in cocoa taking a small loss on their longs today. We're operating under the influence sugar reached an interim top this week. Some clients are positioned in bearish plays in October and March contracts. We're anticipating a 7-10% correction from current levels. On a break lower in Ag in the next three weeks we will be a buyer ahead of the next USDA report. In a perfect world we would see at least a 30% correction of the most recent appreciation across this complex for an entry point...stay tuned.

Clients took off their August 30-yr bonds pits at cost this morning when the 20 day MA held. Stand clear of the long end but aggressive traders can fade rallies in the short end in long dated Euro- dollar futures or purchase at the money put options.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898

matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

Crude failed to close positive but was able to post a new high. Momentum has started to shift bullish again and on a close above the 18 day MA at $101 look for more buying to appear. A bearish AGA report contributed to natural gas being down on the day but losses were pared with a close nearly 15 cents off the intra-day low. The 100 day MA supported the indices again today and as we hinted yesterday forced into the market we would rather be long than short. A close above the 50 day MA which should happen today gets bulls back in the driver's seat.

The dollar was lower for the third consecutive session and as we predicted should be making its way back near 74.00 in the June contract. Our favored play is longs in the Swissie and Pound. Inside day in live cattle...accumulate longs looking for first the gap from last week to be filled and then an eventual test of the 20 day MA. Silver closed down 1% after trading within 25 cents of the 50 day MA overnight. On a breach of that level expect a further appreciation of $2-3 ounce...we should know in the next few sessions. We advised clients with multiple positions to lighten up on longs. Traders searching for metals exposure outside of silver could lightly buy gold...today some clients bought October bull call spreads.

Cocoa was higher by 1.6% today as prices have started to move...our target is September is a minimum of 3200. October sugar is back over the 200 day MA...we suggest buying dips as our target remains 25 cents/lb. Grains closed positive today but were unable to hold onto much of their gains. Aggressive traders can gain bearish exposure and grains bulls should wait for a dip to buy new crop contracts. We expect new contract highs but not before we get a break in corn and soybeans...again my opinion. Futures traders in the debt complex should cut losses on today's new high. Option traders should wait for a set back to cut losses in 30-yr bonds and 10-yr notes.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898

matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

Trading in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors often fail to evaluate investment results in the context of the market environment. No two investment years are equal; some calendar years provide greater opportunity to make money in certain investments than others. When judging investment results, it is important to consider the performance of an investment relative to market activity.

Long-only stock investments are typically evaluated (and rightfully so) against a long-only benchmark, such as the S&P 500 Index. Multidimensional investments such as the Lexington Keystone trading program, on the other hand, have the ability to profit from both rising and falling prices. The investment strategies employed by Lexington Asset Management seek to generate returns from sustained directional price moves, either up or down, in the futures markets, forward markets, and cash markets. Therefore, when evaluating the performance of the Lexington Keystone investment program, it is relevant to quantify the magnitude of directional price moves from markets contained within the Keystone portfolio. The Strength of Trend Index was designed by Lexington for just this purpose. It effectively measures the cumulative directional price moves from each individual market across the entire Keystone portfolio during each corresponding period.

The weakness in commodities over the last month was merely the market's way of shaking weak hands out of the market. Fundamentally nothing changes, nor does the trend of spot commodity prices.

Everyone is obsessed with watching the behavior of commodity futures markets but these are so subject to speculation that all they really tell you, from a short term perspective at least, is how emotional the crowd is. They tell you little of the fundamental or primary trend of commodity markets.

Note the behavior of the CRB Spot Commodity Index (an index of spot prices for commodities). It has hardly budged over the last few weeks and it is certainly not displaying any behavior that could be regarded as being out of the ordinary.

I think the weakness we observed over the last few weeks was merely a reflection of the market attempting to shake weak hands out of the tree. Fundamentally nothing has changed. Liquidity conditions are very positive (junk grade bonds closed at a multiweek high on Friday), the Fed/US administration seems happy to let the USD slide in a controlled manner, and demand/supply conditions have not changed at all over the last month with respect to commodities.

I think commodity prices will be materially higher by year end. Buy into any weakness, says Brad McFadden of Daily Trading Report.

The point about zero sum game is that there are position holders on both sides of the trade, meaning that for every buyer (long position holder), there is an opposite seller (short position holder). A gain or profit for one participant represents a loss for the opposite participant. Forex (foreign exchange) and futures markets are examples of zero sum game markets. Stocks do not fall in this category.

Interestingly, there are some investors who avoid "zero sum game" markets (investments) because they mistakenly believe in their minds that these markets represent nothing more than a group of poker players sitting across the table from each other where, in order for someone to win, another player has to lose. They believe that smartest player will walk off with all of the chips. Nothing could be further from the truth. To begin with, not all participants in "zero sum game" markets, like futures or Forex markets, are investing to make money. Here's an explanation:

One of the primary participants in the futures markets are hedgers. Hedgers are interested in transferring their risk to other participants in the futures markets because hedgers are interested in making money in their field of expertise. Hedgers are not in the business of forecasting price trends. Hedgers are only interested in being experts in their own fields, like farming, manufacturing, or corporate finance. Futures markets are extremely valuable instruments in our economy when it comes to the function of risk transfer.

Chiquita Brands International is one of the largest players in the banana market. They sell a substantial quantity of bananas to U.S. buyers, which include grocery store chains. Their business model involves growing and wholesaling bananas to international retail chains. When Chiquita negotiates the price (in advance of the actual delivery) of a banana shipment with a U.S. client in U.S. dollars, one of the first things that Chiquita does is to transfer their currency fluctuation risk to other futures markets participants, like speculators or scalpers. Chiquita is not interested in seeing their profit margin evaporate as a result of an unforeseen currency price move. Currency speculation is not their primary business. Thankfully, the currency futures markets offer Chiquita the perfect forum to transfer this undesirable currency fluctuation risk to other futures market participants.

In another example, some airlines have used the crude oil futures markets to successfully lock in lower energy prices because they feared that rising crude oil prices would significantly impact and potentially damage their future profit margins. Fortunately, Southwest Airlines, for example, transferred their energy risk before higher energy prices became a reality. By hedging in the energy futures market, Southwest Airlines become one of the most profitable airlines in the industry when crude oil prices finally spiked.

"Zero sum game" markets, like futures markets, are effective mechanisms for countless companies to transfer their unwanted price risks. Professional money managers, like Commodity Trading Advisors, are in the business of strategically accepting transferred risk when they believe that profits can be made. Don't let the "zero sum game" misconception keep you from considering excellent investments in managed futures.

by Mark Helweg and Drew Day
Lexington Asset Management
Clifton House, 75 Fort Street
PO Box 1390, Grand Cayman
KY1-1108
Email: info@ LexingtonAM.com
Web Site: LexingtonAM.com
Phone: 239.273.0142

People are slow to change. People tend to remain skeptical about new technology simply because they are unfamiliar with it and because it is not widely accepted by the public. Interestingly enough, the need for public acceptance is more of a driving factor in validating new technology than the actual merits of the technology itself.

Trading systems are simply sets of rules that traders use to determine their entries and exits for a position in the markets. For many years, the investment public has viewed trading systems as a mysterious technology, or "black box," that cannot be trusted with something as important as investment dollars. However, more investors are now taking note of investments that utilize trading systems as this technology has been meeting with notable success in recent years.

Lao Tzu, a 6th century BC poet, once stated that

"Those who have knowledge do not predict and those who predict do not have knowledge."

Using Boeing stock we will compare two scenarios that highlight the benefits of trading systems. In Scenario #1, a broker buys Boeing early on and recommends a buy-and-hold strategy for his investors. The broker is predicting that Boeing prices will go up over the long term, and is willing to expose the investment dollars of his clients to all price corrections and bear markets along the way. In Scenario #2, a well researched computerized trading system is used to generate buy and sell signals over the same time period. The trading system has no opinion about the direction of prices. By design, the trading system detects changes in supply and demand and generates a buy signal when demand increases by a certain amount, or generates a sell signal when supply begins to strengthen against demand. The trading system reacts to Boeing price changes, which represent the vote of all of the traders and investors in the market.

Trading System Buy and Sell Signals in Boeing Stock (1985-2009)

As we analyze the trading system applied to Boeing stock in the chart above, we can see that in general the trading system bought when up trends developed and sold, or exited the long position, when down trends developed. The trading system did not buy at the exact bottom or sell at the exact top of the price moves in Boeing, buy rather captured profits from the middle of the trends. In scenario #1, the broker would have simply bought Boeing stock and held on through all downward corrections in price and all bear market trends.

Offshore investments have gotten a bad rap in the past for illegal activities like tax evasion and money laundering. While this still happens occasionally, occurrences are much less frequent. Now, a record number of individuals are taking advantage of offshore opportunities, and it's 100% legal. There are several ways to use an offshore investment to your advantage. Let's look at a few, and discuss how to use online trading to take advantage of these benefits.

Tax Reduction

It is possible that a small country's economy would be vastly improved by investments from wealthy countries. An easy way to draw this kind of foreign capital to a small remote country is to provide lower tax rates for International Business Companies. This way, foreign investors can save money on corporate taxes, and the country can use the extra cash to build infrastructure and improve the standard of living for their citizens. More recently, however, G20 governments have begun to regulate this, in some cases taxing worldwide income rather than just domestic income.

Diversification

Many investors are unsatisfied with the narrow range of investments offered inside their home countries. Not only do they receive a wider range of investments offshore, but they are able to invest more aggressively as regulation are often more relaxed in desirable investment products.

Privacy

Breach of privacy is heavily penalized for a firm handling customers offshore investments. This is useful if you don't want your private investments publicized for the market and general public to see and react to.

Advantages to Online Investing

Online trading for an offshore investment strategy is offered through many different global stock brokers. There are many useful features and benefits to online trading as opposed to offline trading. The most obvious is cost. Online commissions usually range from $5 to $25 per trade, depending on volume and what broker you sign up with. The next most important is time.

The logistics of using a broker is very inefficient compared to online trading. The broker is a middleman between you and the trader, and it takes several minutes to arrive at an agreed upon price. With online trading, you can just click the "buy" button, and the transaction takes place instantly.

Online trading also affords you greater control over what and how you buy. If you work through a broker, he may not buy the stock you want because he thinks it is an unwise purchase. Also, many brokers have a minimum number of shares requirement to buy. Neither of these are an issue if you trade online.

That being said, many online firms still offer the services of a broker for managed accounts, and unless you are a stone cold investing machine, it would be wise to use them. At the very least, it's nice to have them at your disposal.

Since you will be trading offshore, your broker will be familiar with the local regulations and tax laws that may affect your purchases and because this is probably unfamiliar territory, consulting with your broker may be a wise decision.

In summary, the benefits of offshore investing are shrinking, but still very real, and taking advantage of them through online trading is highly beneficial.

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Not only is tomorrow a Fed decision day on rates Bernanke will be interviewed so expect fireworks. Inside day in Crude oil as we failed to make a new low with prices closing only marginally lower. Our bearish bias exists but we would like to see confirmation. On a break lower we think we could see a quick test of the 20 day MA at $109.30 in the June contract. We've yet to deploy any client capital but on our radar are shorts in RBOB or potential spread trades short RBOB/long heating oil...stay tuned.

Aggressive traders can get short natural gas as we feel an interim high is in place and expect a trade back near $4.20 in June. A break out in the indices should lift prices higher...though our clients will be absent as we do not trust this move. Is the dollar basing out or pausing before the next leg lower...that is the question and we should get the answer tomorrow. Every short we've attempted in other crosses has been a loser so you may want to look for opportunities elsewhere. A 1.4% drop in lean hogs today and near 5% drop in the last four sessions has longs back on our radar and clients will move back long when we see some type of consolidation. Live cattle have retraced 50% in recent weeks so we've advised clients to start scaling back into longs. In the coming weeks we anticipate a trade back over the 20 day MA's. In June at 117.20 and in December at 123.70.

Silver loss nearly 5% today and is almost $5 off its intra-day highs from yesterday. We lifted the bearish ratio trades for clients from yesterday at a 40% profit. From here we would fade rallies as a trade to $40/41 could be in the cards. The gold chart is fairly ugly as well, but it would take a trade below the 9 day MA for selling to accelerate. That level is $1490 in the June contract. On that we would likely see a swift move to $1450...trade accordingly. Sugar did finish lower in today's session but prices still remain above the 200 day MA. We have clients long via July options that are currently carrying a small loss. We are positioned trying to capitalize on a bounce to 25/cents in the coming weeks.

Aggressive traders can add to their shorts in cotton and continue to fight coffee by selling although it may be painful for a short period. Over the next several months we're looking for much lower cotton and coffee pricing...trade accordingly. As for agriculture our favored plays are currently bearish positioning in soybean oil and corn. We suggest trading July soybean oil and either July or December corn. Treasuries moved higher and though we should be cutting losses on shorts being most of our clients positions are options we opted to hold bearish plays in 10-yr notes into tomorrow's FOMC decision...stay tuned.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898

matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

From April 18 Saxo Bank offers direct online trading of Bovespa index futures and a futures contract tracking the USD/Brazilian Real currency cross on the Brazilian futures exchange. By providing access to the Brazilian exchange, Saxo Bank will enable investors to diversify into a new geography and further spread their portfolio exposure across asset classes.

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This is not an April Fools joke...commodities belong in all portfolios if an investor has some risk aversion just look what's happening in commodities compared to other asset classes. Crude has its highest close in 2011 to kick off the first trading day in Q2. The momentum should carry prices upwards of $110/barrel but we would prefer to be a buyer from lower levels so unless already in a position we would remain on the sidelines. Natural gas is on our radar but we anticipate a trade back near $4 before we see more upside so look for a dip into next week. Indices were flat yesterday after a muted reaction to the jobs number this morning ...we've lightly worked aggressive clients back into bear put spreads in June ES contracts.

The greenbacks 1% early day rally failed as prices will close flat in the dollar on the week. We remain to feel the best play at current levels is scaling into shorts in the Aussie to play a 3-4 cent correction in the coming weeks. Aggressive clients established bearish futures and options positions in June lean hogs yesterday anticipating a trade back to the 20 day MA in the coming weeks; in June at 100.70. Both gold and silver traded down in yesterday's session but we're anticipating much more than the small incremental moves next. We could see $50 lower in gold and $3 lower in silver in my humble opinion.

Cocoa rallied 2% yesterday but failed to penetrate the 200 day MA; in July at 3045. We suggest bullish exposure to play a trade back near 3300. Both coffee and cotton gave up 2% yesterday; we continue to suggest bearish exposure in both. Old crop corn was higher by 6% yesterday coming off limit in late dealings. We do not think the highs are in but would prefer trading new crop from the long side until we get a retracement in old crop contracts. We opted to take profits for clients on their soybeans as we did not get the expected reaction off Thursday's USDA. We will look to get them long again from lower levels. Treasuries are in no man's land but our bias is starting to shift from bearish to bullish so stay tuned for fresh trade recommendations.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

* Trading in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Our website is filled with resources to help the most novice or savviest trader. Come look at what the markets are doing in our charts & quotes section, or look up contract symbols and more in our tools section. The education segment includes a glossary and our special reports sector has access to all our archived commentaries and specialty articles published by Matthew Bradbard.

Our wallets as consumers are not fat with the rising price of commodities...from gas to a loaf of bread prices are moving higher. Crude is showing signs of exhaustion...NO I'm net advising getting short but a $5-7 correction seems reasonable. A trade back to just the 20 day MA in May drags prices in the May contract to $97.50. Natural gas failed to penetrate the 20 day MA; the same level that acted as resistance last week. On a settlement above $4.00 in May expect bears to be on their heels. We suggest gaining bullish exposure via futures and options. We would've expected to see some downside follow through in the indices today but after the rally prices are back above the up-sloping trend line. We would like to see more guidance as we've been sucked back into some shorts via June puts and are again under water with some clients.

The dollar should see more upside from here...sell the Euro, Pound or Swissie. Lean hogs are a buy in our opinion as we will have some bullish suggestions in June after today's 2.6% appreciation. Buy dips in live cattle as 1.20 is likely in the June contract and 1.30 in the December. Silver and gold look heavy to me but they have for weeks now. We may issue a ratio spread trade recommendation selling (1) silver and buying (2) gold...stay tuned. Cocoa is a sell; we will be looking to gain bearish exposure in May or July in the coming sessions. Cotton traded down limit...clients are short May from much lower levels and we may have a July options recommendation if we continue to see weakness...stay tuned. We may see a continued break ahead of Thursday's USDA report but we would use breaks in grains to establish longs in new crop contracts. We have November soybeans and December corn on our radar for clients. From the long end to the short end we feel the play is to be short in the debt complex.

Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
(954) 929-9993 fax
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com