Uranium is a very unusual sector. For one, it's small. So small, that at one point in history top-producing nations like Canada and France tried to form a uranium cartel to control prices for the metal.
The "uranium OPEC" failed. But production today is de facto controlled by a handful of companies.
Consider this. The world's top ten uranium mines account for 59% of global production. (The top mine, Saskatchewan's McArthur River, alone puts out 15% of the world's supply.)
This is very concentrated, compared to other sectors. In the copper sector, the top ten mines turn out just 30% of global supply. For gold, the number is even lower. About 19%.
This means that what happens at a just few uranium mines around the world makes a big difference to the price for the metal.
For this reason alone, good uranium projects are interesting. Any deposit that could become a significant supplier will garner a lot of interest. From would-be producers who want to break the stranglehold existing suppliers have on the market. And from same existing suppliers, who want to keep as much control as possible over the sector.
But the severe concentration of global production is just one reason to look at uranium projects. Another (perhaps better) reason is the extremely skewed grade distribution of the world's uranium mines.
The Asian Development Bank launched a $9 billion solar power initiative to develop projects generating 3,000 megawatts by 2012.
The announcement, which came at the regional lending agency's annual meeting in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, said that Central Asian countries would be prime candidates for siting the projects.
"Given Central Asia's growing demand for electricity, the availability of desert land for large- scale solar energy development, and their stated commitment to offset high carbon emissions, several countries in the region are excellent candidates for ADB support through this initiative," ADB managing director general Rajat Nag said.
The development bank will provide $2.25 billion in direct financing, expecting to leverage another $6.75 billion in private financing for the projects. It will experiment with other methods to attract private-sector investment, such as soliciting $500 million from donor countries to "buy down" some of the up-front capital costs in solar power projects.
"With energy demand projected to almost double in the Asia and Pacific region by 2030, there is an urgent need for innovative ways to generate power while at the same time reducing greenhouse gas emissions," Nag said. "Sustainable solar energy can be the clean power of the future if there are appropriate incentive and financing mechanisms in place."
The initiative also includes a Solar Energy Forum to function as a knowledge-sharing platform. This forum will hold a conference in July in Manila, the headquarters of the ADB.
April saw the price of gold hit a Sterling and Euro record. While the GBP754 (or 865 Euros) per troy ounce stat still remains 5% below the all time US dollar record, this was nonetheless excellent news for the British investors.
Compare the GBP754/ounce price tag with the price of GBP562 per ounce, as gold stood back in August 2009 and it means that holders of the previous metal have seen the value of their gold soar 34% in value in less than a year.
It's widely thought that the fact that gold is maintaining such a high price per ounce, despite the fact that the US dollar is making a notable recovery, indicates a growing number of people viewing gold as a 'safe investment,' in light of inconsistent currencies and the still prevalent economic uncertainty globally.
Gold is also proving a popular investment for those who, in times of US dollar instability, might have invested in Euros, Pounds Sterling or even Yen. As these currencies also continue to perform inconsistently, following the recent global recession, investors are increasingly turning to gold bullion, which has proven a more sound investment in recent years.
Currency, like all forms of abstract value, is based on trust. And trust itself is based - except among the most naïve - on experience, and the repetitive demonstration of fidelity, whether positive or negative. At present, the US dollar, which had experienced a gradual rise during the 20th Century to the position gained well into the Cold War of being the trading world's reserve currency. It had the mass, in terms of volumes of available currency; it had the backing of an indisputably wealthy national asset base to move away from the gold standard; it had stable governmental backing.
All of that is evaporating. Not, in absolute terms, as far as the mass of currency available, because that has dramatically expanded in recent years, and particularly during the past year of the Administration of Pres. Barack Obama. Not in the underlying asset valuation of the US economy, but it has begun to erode as the productive capability of the US to extract that value diminishes due to excess governmental interference and anti-business practices. It is far to say that other countries, from Nigeria to Russia, have vast untapped underlying asset value. That they did not create global reserve currencies from their naira and ruble was due to governance failures.
However, as we are witnessing, good governance as an essential component of currency value and the trust in that currency, can transform overnight, just as we witnessed the post-World War II collapse of sterling, and, now, the shakiness of trust in the US dollar (despite the reality that, at $14.2-trillion in value in 2008, is the world's largest). The age of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is not yet over, but it is threatened, and the trend toward a flight from the dollar (despite occasional returns to it) is evident. At present, however, the dollar is shored up because in many respects there is nothing of its stature ready to replace it. This leads to the essential question:
Are we entering a period in which we may have no global reserve currency?
The People's Republic of China (PRC) has been searching for safe-havens for its holdings of foreign earnings. The US dollar has slipped in its esteem, with some short-term benefits, perhaps for US exports, but with perilous long-term consequences. As a result, and whilst attempting to preserve the intrinsic value of its currency holdings, the PRC has been gradually scaling back its holdings in US currencies or US dollar-denominated instruments.
Where can the PRC go with its hoard? It looked at euro investments, at Canadian and Australian dollar holdings, and so on. The Australian and Canadian economic bases -- at just under a trillion US dollar GDP for Australia, and about $1.4-trillion GDP for Canada -- are insufficiently large to hold much in the way of PRC investments. Nonetheless, these economies have benefited from the PRC dilemma. The euro, however, is, like the US dollar, suffering from a loss of credibility, and unless some profound action is taken the euro may dramatically diminish in credibility, severely hampering the loose confederal structure of the European Union, preventing it from becoming the federal state of Europe to which some (mostly unelected) aspire.
SandRidge Energy's agreement this week to acquire Arena Resources, a producer of conventional oil in West Texas, for $1.6 billion is the latest example of natural gas companies seeking to balance their portfolios with more oil as the two resources decouple in price.
Natural gas prices have fallen more than 25% this year to below $4 a million British thermal units while oil prices have risen 8% and are now testing the $85 a barrel level, with some analysts forecasting $90 to $100 a barrel for later this year. The price ratio between the two fossil fuels has widened to more than 20-to-1 after staying closer to 10-to-1 in the past, even when oil rose to $147 a barrel.
SandRidge CEO Tom Ward said last month at the Howard Weil Energy Conference that companies can make "10 times more money" producing oil rather than gas. SandRidge has been acquiring oil properties over the past two years to achieve greater balance.
Gas accounted for 85% of SandRidge revenue at end-2008. Currently, oil represents only 28% of production but accounts for 54% of revenue.
The Arena Resources acquisition is SandRidge's second in West Texas since November, when it spent $800 million to acquire properties from Forest Oil.
Other producers at the Howard Weil conference - including Noble Energy and Cabot Oil & Gas - said they were shifting investment to oil rather than gas.
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Crude oil futures kept falling back from highs even though speculative funds increased their bets that prices are headed higher. The benchmark West Texas Intermediate contract ended the week at $80.68 a barrel, after nearing $83 earlier in the week, compared to $81.24 a week ago.
Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali Naimi, made it clear once again on Tuesday that the world's largest oil producer prefers a range of $70 to $80 for oil prices. Speaking to journalists in Vienna prior to and OPEC meeting, Naimi said the oil-exporting group, which accounts for 40% of daily oil consumption, won't let tight supplies push prices too high.
Further bearish factors were the increase of 1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories in the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration and renewed strength of the dollar amid continuing concern about Greece's fiscal situation.
A report in The Wall Street Journal on Friday suggested that EIA collection methods for the oil inventory data may be flawed, according to internal agency documents obtained by the newspaper. Greece said on Thursday it might have to call on the International Monetary Fund for aid if its efforts to reduce its deficit are not successful.
But bulls were encouraged by the Federal Reserve's reiteration that interest rates would remain low and by OPEC's decision to leave production volume unchanged, indicating their belief that prices would remain firm. The benchmark oil contract settled at $82.93 on Wednesday.
However, the move by the Reserve Bank of India to raise its key rates on Friday drove oil prices down amid fears that China and other emerging economies might follow suit and dampen demand for oil.
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This week we will see the stock market grabbing most of the headlines as it cruises through 13,000 on the Dow. We are seeing a trend develop in the soft complex that is worth mentioning. We are seeing all but one of the major soft markets trending down which could be foretelling of an overall slowdown in the pace of growth commodities have enjoyed in recent years. Markets like OJ were leading indicators on the way up and are now likely to be leading indicators on the way down. This in no way implies that the commodity boom is over but rather just a normal correction or slowdown within a larger bull market.
SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China aims to produce 193 million tonnes of oil and 92 billion cubic metres of natural gas by 2010, according to an energy blueprint released by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on April 10.
While the target represents a mere 5% growth in oil output compared to last year, or 2.12% in annual growth, the gas target represents a 56% jump in natural gas production, necessitating growth of 12.6% a year.