Forecasting the Low in the Gold Market

23 Nov

This is an artist's impression of a unique type of extrasolar planet discovered with the Hubble Space Telescope. The planet is so close it to its star that it completes an orbit in 10.5 hours. The planet is only 750,000 miles (about 1.207 Million kilometres) from the star, or 1/130th the distance between Earth and the Sun. The Jupiter-sized planet orbits an unnamed red dwarf star that lies in the direction of the Galactic Centre; the exact stellar distance is unknown. Hubble detected the planet in a survey that identified 16 Jupiter-sized planets in short-period, edge-on orbits (as viewed from Earth) that pass in front of their parent stars. Hubble could not see the planets, but measured the dimming of starlight as the planets passed in front of their stars. This illustration presents a purely speculative view of what such a "hot Jupiter" might look like. It could have a powerful magnetic field that traps charged particles from the star. These particles create glowing auroral rings around the planet's magnetic poles. A powerful magnetic flux tube links the planet and star. This enhances stellar activity and triggers powerful flares. A powerful stellar wind creates a bow shock around the planet. Forecasting the planet's atmosphere seethes at 1,650 degrees Celsius.

Q: Does the recent terrorist attack in Paris and the public reaction have any bearing on your calling the low in the gold market?
A: The event does not but the reaction confirms my view that we have not yet seen the low. We have had new lows in both the bullion and the gold mining shares since the incident. That confirms that we remain in a bear market. I continue to await specialist short covering and an ending wave pattern. When that happens, the low will be in.

Q: Any view on when the low might accrue?
A: There are three options the speculator or investor has: buy; sell; or be natural. So far I have been right since February in saying that we have not yet seen the low. There have been many market timers, who have, over this time period, advised their clients to buy. Anyone following their advice would have surprised significant loses. It is vain to predict when the low will occur. The only thing that is needed is to know that the low has occurred when that happens. I am of the view that knowing what has happened is also much easier than predicting what will happen. There are economic laws that can be applied to the facts at hand when we are dealing with what has happened but that cannot be done when the facts are not yet in. Gerald Celente has expressed it best: current events form future trends.

The Forecasting of Gerald Celente

Gerald Celente (born November 29, 1946) is an American trend forecaster, publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant and author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other events of historical importance. Celente has described himself as a “political atheist” and “citizen of the world”.

His forecasts since 1993 have included predictions about terrorism, economic collapses and war. More recent forecasts involve fascism in the United States, food riots and tax revolts. Celente has long predicted global anti-Americanism, a failing economy and immigration woes in the U.S. In December 2007 Celente wrote, “Failing banks, busted brokerages, toppled corporate giants, bankrupt cities, states in default, foreign creditors cashing out of US securities … whatever the spark, the stage is set for panic in the streets” and “Just as the Twin Towers collapsed from the top down, so too will the U.S. economy … when the giant firms fall, they’ll crush the man on the street.” He has also predicted tax revolts. In November 2008 Celente appeared on Fox Business Network and predicted economic depression, tax rebellions and food riots in the United States by 2012. Celente also predicted an “economic 9/11” and a “panic of 2008.”

In 2009 Celente predicted turmoil which he described as “Obamageddon”, and he was a popular guest on conservative cable-TV shows such as Fox News Sunday and Glenn Beck’s television program. In April 2009 Celente wrote, “Wall Street controls our financial lives; the media manipulates our minds. These systems cannot be changed from within. There is no alternative. Without a revolution, these institutions will bankrupt the country, keep fighting failed wars, start new ones, and hold us in perpetual intellectual subjugation.” He appeared on the Glenn Beck show and criticized the U.S. stimulus plan of 2009, calling government controlled capitalism “fascism” and saying shopping malls in the U.S. would become “ghost malls.” Celente has said, “smaller communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will ‘weather the crisis in style’ as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and conflict,” and forecasts “a downsizing of America.”

Hugo Lindgren and ABC News have labelled Celente’s predictions “pessimism porn” for their doom and the alleged eschatological thrill some people receive from imagining his predictions of the collapse of civil society in the wake of a global economic crisis.

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