Mathematical advantage trading options

Mathematical advantage
Q: You make a big point of saying that you don’t predict the future and that it’s easier to answer the true false question about whether today is the low in the gold market than it is to say which of next year’s 365 days will be the low. I don’t see that you have any mathematical advantage since you can also be wrong 364 times when answering the true false question.

A: You’re right when using addition, but addition isn’t the correct mathematical operation to use here. In this instance, division is.

Q: I don’t understand. Could you please elaborate?

A: OK. Today I ask you: Which of the next 365 days will be the low in the gold market? Your attention — consciousness — is now diverted into or divided by 365 days. Now, mathematically, your power of consciousness is one 365th of what it would be if you mentally stayed in the present. I will not play when the odds are 364 to one against me. Predicting the future is for fools and charlatans — mainstream economists, stock promoters, and politicians. This doesn’t mean that trends can’t be analysed and useful information harvested from them. As Gerald Celente famously keeps repeating, current events make future trends.

Richard Alpert, before he became Ram Dass, related an incident of a NYC cab driver in India on a week-long super saver fare to visit with the elder master. He was sitting with the master and Ram Dass, three days had gone by, and he was getting impatient. Finally, he asked the guru to please speed up the process. He asked, “What do I need to do to be enlightened?” The guru said, “So you want me to speed it up, to tell you the essential thing to do to get what you want out of life?” The cabby replied, “Yes,” and the guru said, “Attention.” The cabby asked, “Is that all there is?” And the guru asked, “Do you want more?” The cabby replied, “Yes, I want more,” and the guru said, “Attention, attention.

by Arthur Fixed

The Art of Speculation during Civil War
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[box type=”info” style=”rounded” border=”full”]Commentary from Arthur Fixed the author of the Art of Speculation during Civil War – Sun Tzu Meets Jesse Livermore is a private manuscript copyrighted 2012 by Art Fixed.[/box]

Photo credit: ckrahe via Visualhunt.com / CC BY-SA


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